We periodically receive newsletters from a wide variety of government reform news sources; the organizations focus on only the major events within their respective areas of expertise. Here is a selection from a recent email newsletter:
From Crystal Ball, University of Virginia
http://bit.ly/3qKIxR
RESPONSE: ANYBODY'S BALL GAME
By James E. Campbell, Guest Columnist
[...] While this could be to Obama's favor, the general historical pattern is for the actual vote margin to be closer than what the polls indicate. Add to this the fact that the polls of registered voters normally under-report Republican votes (since the socio-demographics of registered Republicans leads them to turn out at higher rates than registered Democrats) and have at times over-reported support for African American candidates (Wilder in Virginia, Bradley in California). For whatever the polls are worth at this point, the fact that the July polls indicate only a narrow lead for Obama over McCain would seem to mesh well with the historical patterns noted above. In short, there are good reasons to anticipate another "hotly contested election that is essentially up for grabs."
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