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Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Monday, May 18, 2009
Social Security cash flow deficits are projected to begin in 2016
Image via Wikipedia
From: The Concord Coalition
Last week, the Trustees of the Social Security Trust Funds (Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability) released their annual report. In a nutshell, following is the status of the trust funds, based on the Trustees' findings:
- Social Security is a pay-as-you-go program where incoming payroll tax revenue revenues (6.2% each from employers and employees) pay for benefits disbursed to retirees and disabled Americans.
Cash flow deficits are projected to begin in 2016, as opposed to last year's estimate of 2017.
Cash deficits will continue and worsen as the baby-boom generation retires.
The assertion that "social security surpluses" will keep the program solvent until 2037 is misleading, because the surpluses do not actually exist except on paper. The surpluses consist of IOU's from the Treasury Department to the Social Security Trust Funds (Treasury Bonds) and can be redeemed only if taxes are raised, spending is cut, or the Treasury borrows the money.- Dedicated tax income (including taxation of benefits) projected for 2016: $986 billion. Benefit payments projected for 2016: $1,005 billion
Who are the Trustees? Secretary of the Treasury Geithner; Secretary of Labor Solis; Secretary of HHS Sebelius; and Commissioner of Social Security Astrue. The two public trustee positions are vacant.
2009 Social Security Trustees Report
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Saturday, February 28, 2009
President Obama must do more to lower the nation's deficits during his stay in office
The White House. Image by Fabio Gava via Flickr
From: Taxpayers for Common Sense
Volume XIV No. 9 - February 27, 2009
In his address to Congress, President Obama pledged to cut the annual budget deficit in half by the end of his term. The problem is, this goal would keep deficit levels higher than the record deficits we have seen over the last eight years.
The bottom line is we have to do better. The largest budget deficit during the Bush presidency was $454 billion in 2008. At the time, that was a record. Everyone knows that record will be smashed to bits with the deficit estimated (pdf) to exceed $1.7 trillion in 2009. Right on the heels of that is a predicted deficit of $1.2 trillion in 2010.
We understand the argument that the country is in a deep recession, committing unprecedented funds to a bailout of the financial system and to stimulate the economy, so there is a need to carry large deficits in the short term. But, the budget the Administration released predicts the economic recovery starting in 2010, thus deficit reductions should and can be more aggressive before the end of the Presidential term in 2013.
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Wednesday, January 07, 2009
How much do we really owe in federal financial obligations?

Government reform orgs. deliver news on major events within their areas of expertise.
From: Peter G Peterson Foundation
What is the Real National Debt?
"How exactly does a $56.4 trillion bill add up?" you ask. We know that the federal government carries both publicly held debt and debt for money it has borrowed from itself. Together, these sums are closing in on $11 trillion. This is the figure most commonly cited as our "national debt," but actually, that’s only the start of the REAL national debt.
Right now, you are carrying a burden of about $184,000. That is each and every American’s share of the US government’s approximated $56.4 trillion in current obligations. And every year in which no down payments or reforms are made to these obligations, the total grows by $2 trillion to $3 trillion – or $6,600 to $10,000 per person – on autopilot.
How exactly does this $56.4 trillion bill add up? First, there are the federal government’s known liabilities that it is legally obliged to fulfill. These include publicly held debt, military and civilian pensions and retiree health benefits. As of September 30, 2008, these liabilities added up to $12.2 trillion.
Then there are various commitments and contingencies – i.e., contractual requirements that the government is expected to fulfill when, and if specified conditions are met. These include federal insurance payouts, loan guarantees, and leases. As of September 30, 2008, they added up to $1.4 trillion.
So where does the remaining $43 trillion or so come from? That’s what the government has promised to pay in Social Security and Medicare benefits in excess of related revenues. As of January 1, 2008, current and promised future Social Security benefits amounted to $6.6 trillion. And between Medicare’s three programs (hospital insurance, outpatient, and prescription drug), current and future promised Medicare benefits amounted to $36.3 trillion.
Keep in mind that although people rely on the promise of these benefits, the government can – and does – change these programs in ways that increase or decrease the value of the expected benefits, which has the effect of expanding or shrinking the total amount of obligations. Such changes can be made to the size of payroll tax contributions, cost-of-living adjustments, beneficiary premiums, eligibility ages and benefit levels, among other examples.
That’s how you get to $56.4 trillion. And remember: every year in which no down payments or reforms are made to any of the obligations above, this total grows by $2 trillion to $3 trillion.
Stick with www.pgpf.org to keep track of how much you owe.
SOURCE: 2008 Financial Report of the United States Government. Social Security and Medicare benefits are present values as of January 1, 2008. Burden per person calculated using estimated December 2008 US Census Bureau data. Other data as of September 30, 2008.
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Sunday, November 02, 2008
Fiscal Voter Guide to the 2008 Presidential Election

Government reform orgs. deliver news on major events within their areas of expertise.
From: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Promises, Promises: A Fiscal Voter Guide to the 2008 Election presents a summary of the major
policy proposals and the costs of the policies forwarded by Senator McCain and Senator
Obama’s presidential campaigns. Each candidate’s policies are broken into four categories:
tax, health care, energy, and other spending/savings. Policies that would enlarge the deficit
(or reduce the surplus) are shown as negative numbers, and those that would reduce the
deficit (or increase the surplus) are shown as positive numbers. The guide is not intended
to express a view for or against either candidate or any specific policy proposal.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Bailouts deepen the already deep financial condition of the US government

Image via WikipediaGovernment reform orgs. deliver news on major events within their areas of expertise.
From: Facing Up to the Nation's Finances
[The deepening federal fiscal condition is receiving increasing alarm and entreaties from America's fiscal watchdogs. -David Weller]
By ScottBittle on October 20th, 2008
More and more economists are arguing that a global financial crisis isn't the time to worry about the federal deficit. A wide range of budget expert and economists – even the ones who'd normally be considered budget hawks -- say the government has to do whatever it takes to stabilize the financial markets, get credit flowing, and mitigate the recession that's almost certainly upon us. If that means running deficits, they argue, then that's what we'll have to do.
And make no mistake about it: the federal government will run deficits over the next few years. The Congressional Budget Office projected deficits of more than $400 billion for the next two years, even before the global financial crisis hit. Since then, we've added a $700 billion bailout plan, and the next presidential administration will very probably add some sort of additional stimulus package to that. That could add up to an unprecedented $1 trillion deficit next year.
Despite any campaign rhetoric you may have heard, it's going to be almost impossible to balance the budget under those circumstances. You can't possibly cut spending enough or raise taxes enough to bring those figures into line without doing massive damage to vital programs or to the broader economy.
So, fair enough. When you're trying to put out a fire, you don't worry about how much water you're using. No one wants the U.S. economy to wind up like Japan in the 1990s. The real challenge facing us will be making sure the solution to the current crisis doesn't set us up for the next one.
It's absolutely true, there are times when running a deficit makes sense. And if the government only ran in the red during recessions and national emergencies, we'd be laughing. But in this country, we routinely ask more of the government than we're willing to pay for. The U.S. has run a deficit for 31 of the last 35 years, and we weren't in a constant state of crisis for those decades. Deficits are the default setting, and they make it harder to deal with real emergencies when they do crop up.
Secondly, the long-term outlook for the federal budget is very, very ugly. Every expert who looks at the long-term state of the budget uses the same word to describe it: unsustainable. The national debt has reached a staggering $10 trillion, and we've got another $53 trillion in liabilities ahead of us to pay for Medicare and Social Security for the baby boomers.
The national debt and those future liabilities could represent the next crisis, after this one. Unless we get the government's financial house in order, unless we find a way of paying for Medicare and Social Security, we'll be looking at a government debt crisis that could be just as painful – and just as avoidable – as the current financial meltdown.
The good news is that, unlike the global financial meltdown, we still have time to deal with the federal budget. Not much time, perhaps, but some. The key thing now is to cope with the current credit crisis and slumping economy without making our long-term budget problems too much worse. We probably can't avoid adding to the national debt to get through the current emergency. But we can at least make sure the money we're borrowing is used wisely: to stimulate the economy and make decisions that will strengthen us in the long run. And we can – we absolutely must -- start the hard work of fixing Social Security and Medicare before they get out of hand.
Otherwise, we may find a second fire has been smoldering while we're been preoccupied with putting this one out.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Lessons to learn for federal government over Wall Street distress

Dave Walker on the Wall Street bailout
In the past week, the stakes have only risen higher! As the US government seeks to dig Wall Street out of its hole, we need to make sure that Washington learns lessons and implements safeguards to keep from falling into the same kind of hole - only deeper.
"The US government truly is too big to fail," writes PGPF President and CEO Dave Walker in this morning's Financial Times. "However, there are disturbing parallels between the factors that led to the sub-prime crisis and the deteriorating financial condition and fiscal foundation of our federal government. These similarities ought to ring an alarm bell for Congress and the presidential candidates. The question is, will they hear it and wake up?" To read Dave's entire op-ed, click here.
Meanwhile, PGPF Vice President Gene Steuerle spotlights the three major reforms needed to modernize Social Security, a program whose features were largely "designed around a view of the economy and the family that is at least three-quarters of a century old." The three necessary reforms:
1) "better poverty reduction" to improve the quality of life for the poor and very poor;
2) "less discouragement of work" to keep Americans in the workforce longer, boosting the program's revenues and as a result, its benefits; and,
3) "fairer treatment of the family" to tackle how the system discriminates among beneficiaries, especially in light of growing trends over the past 75 years of single parenthood, divorce, and adults having children later in life. To read Gene's column, click here.
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Friday, January 11, 2008
United States rating may lower in the next decade
Currently, the U.S. rating for it's bonds is triple-A, the highest Moody's gives for bond issuers. If our rating does fall, interest rates on these investments will likely increase to cover the increased risk for bond purchasers.